Focus on feed grains: the surge in exports stimulates northern wheat
A late-season run on export build-up has pushed northern wheat values up to $ 15 a tonne over the past week, and barley has also firmed as the market begins to trade the probability of a two-stage harvest.
Southern markets have moved mainly sideways over the past week as consumers see above-average yield potential of most crops in areas with high rainfall, thwarting the below-average outlook for pockets of the Mallee and southwestern New South Wales.
Meanwhile, Panamaxes and practical-sized ships booked a few months ago continue to load wheat and barley ahead of end-of-season maintenance shutdowns at some ports.
As exporters scramble to get grain to ports to be loaded on the last boats of the season, traders report that it has become very difficult to reserve truck trucks from warehouses to the farm for backyard consumers. country, which boosted domestic prices.
|Barley stocking||$ 302 up to $ 4||$ 300 up to $ 5 in January|
|Wheat Downs||$ 365 up to $ 15||$ 342 up to $ 7 Jan.|
|Sorghum stockings||$ 302 up to $ 2||$ 290 stable from March to April|
|Barley Melbourne||$ 292 stable||$ 300 stable January|
|Wheat Melbourne||$ 372 stable||$ 368 stable January|
Table 1: Indicative delivered prices in Australian dollars per tonne.
The realization that the harvest will take place in two or more halves has started to affect the northern market as feedlots continue to reserve early barley and exporters step up for early wheat.
Harvesting of both crops is underway in central Queensland (CQ) and will move to the Maranoa and the Western Downs later this month before heading south to the New Wales border of South and east to the Inner Downs in October-November.
After that, a forced break of a few weeks could be seen as crops planted later south of Moree and the Liverpool plains ripening after an unusually wet winter.
“The wheat left on the farm is H2 or better, and the protein premium continues until January as exporters pile up in Brisbane,” said a trader.
Stocks of current Queensland crops are being reduced to a bare minimum and traders are reporting grain from New South Wales being shipped by road to Queensland head-ends to fill trains bound for Brisbane port.
“We think there might just be a soft start to the harvest if it rains a little, and that’s why things are going straight to port on trucks and trains.”
Trade sources report that domestic consumers are likely to increase their coverage once the new crop is available, and are quietly confident that a sufficient amount of low-protein or weather-damaged cereals will be present in the early stages of the crop. harvest.
This belief was fueled by the latest seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, which indicates above-median spring precipitation for the grain-growing regions of eastern and southern Australia.
Broun and Co trader Charlie coventry at Armidale said barley and wheat values strengthened over the past week.
“They are both up, and wheat more in the north,” Mr Coventry said.
“An increase in value tore off a bit more grain and the design arcs widen a bit.
“There are take-out of all products, but we don’t swim in them.
“The reason the market has increased is the drought in Canada and the demand for our protein wheat in Asian markets, coupled with fewer old crops in the market.
“There aren’t as many large plots of grain as there used to be. “
“The other thing that is becoming common is that we are approaching our transition to a new crop, but it will not be an early harvest, and if the start date moves back, it will have a pretty big impact on demand for crops. consumers.
“Depending on the start date, it could create a bit of pressure.”
During the week to today, the only heavy rain in the northern region fell at CQ, where Capella got 68 millimeters and Clermont 42 mm.
Sufficient subsoil moisture to complete the harvest can be found in many paddocks in Queensland and central and northern NSW, so Mr Coventry said the time of harvest rather than the volume of greater concern to consumers.
“Servants can afford to be complacent by snacking month after month.
“When it comes to new cultures, there is not yet much enthusiasm for them to become active. “
“There is nothing that is causing them a lot of anxiety.”
Field beans at $ 330- $ 350 / t on-farm are attracting reasonable interest from producers keen to add additional nutrients to their sheep and cattle, which continue to sell at record prices.
“There’s going to be a carryover of faba, and they’re cheap… so it makes sense to keep the animals fat with cheap pulses.
“The economy has never been so good. “
Sorghum of different qualities continues to be included in domestic poultry and pork rations, but barley remains the preferred cereal for most feeders.
Spring is coming in the south
Spring has arrived unequivocally this week and daytime highs of around 25 degrees Celsius, and above, in parts of southwest New South Wales, northwest Victoria and parts of the South African grain belt will disrupt crops that already need a drink.
Senior Link Brokering Dion Costigan said the hot, dry weather was of concern.
“From Sea Lake and south it’s still pretty reasonable, but north of there… some crops are already toasted.
“There is a significant difference from how they looked a week ago. “
Mr Costigan said even growers with good yield prospects are holding back the sale of the current crop and the new crop now that markets inside the country have risen to as much as $ 30 / t during the month. latest.
“There are pieces that are exchanged, but most of the producers have fallen to the ground. “
In the barley market, 60,000 tonnes of cargo destined for Saudi Arabia continues to exit Port Kembla, and smaller vessels carry barley from southern Australian ports to predominantly Asian destinations , except China.
However, Australia loads large shipments of wheat – up to 70,000 t – for China, and slightly smaller shipments for most Southeast Asian customers.
“Export parity supports domestic food.”